Just got a bunch of push notifications on my phone: “stablecoin supply hits a new high,” “ETF net inflows are back,” and in the comments section people have already started assuming, “so the next wave is about to take off.” I can’t help but find it a little funny… Correlation is such a trickster. To put it bluntly, more stablecoins could mean people are about to buy—or it could just be sitting there waiting for a clearer direction. ETF flows are the same way: off-chain money isn’t only coming in through one door, and the moment it comes in doesn’t automatically push on-chain activity or price movement higher.

Recently, I’ve also been putting RWA, US Treasury yields, and all kinds of on-chain “yield products” side by side to compare, and it feels like everyone is searching for a “steadier story.” But I’d still rather first look at where the money is actually moving on-chain—whether it’s transitioning or pulling back—than stack a few lines on a chart and treat it as a causal chain. Anyway, I’ll keep a cool head first: less imagining, more data.