I've been out of the market for a while, but today I still want to make a move... Recently, my biggest feeling from watching the charts isn't which coin is stronger, but rather how the "main switch" of interest rates is twisting market sentiment: when interest rates tighten, everyone talks about long-termism, but in reality, they're all pulling leverage off the table, and positions are being pressed back; when interest rates loosen, risk appetite secretly creeps back in, even someone as cautious as me can't help but leave a little more ammo in the market. To put it simply, it's not that I've become smarter, but that my heartbeat is following the cost of capital.

And then there's the news about tax increases/regulatory signals in certain regions; the impact isn't really about how complicated the policies are, but about deposit and withdrawal expectations: once people think "it might get more troublesome," even if they haven't actually encountered it, they'll start reducing their positions, afraid they won't be able to withdraw later; conversely, when things loosen up, market sentiment immediately feels like it can breathe again, and traders dare to hold a little longer. Anyway, I don't even dare to draw a full ECG anymore, leaving some blank space for those sudden shocks.