Recently, I saw a bunch of people stacking charts with stablecoin supply, ETF inflows, and other data, saying "See, funds are coming in, so it's about to take off." I also get the itch to believe, but after thinking calmly, many times it's just everyone moving together under the same macro rhythm: risk appetite rises, off-chain investors are willing to enter, on-chain also wants to mint more stablecoins, and the correlation is pretty strong. It doesn't necessarily mean there's a causal chain.

The airdrop season this time is also quite interesting. Task platforms are becoming more and more strict with anti-witching measures, and the points system is forcing the grab-and-go crowd to compete like clocking in at work... Honestly, I envy those who can focus on tasks every day; their execution is really strong. But I'm more afraid of being led astray by a "busy feeling," thinking that doing more equals the right direction.

Anyway, right now I’m only watching two things: whether liquidity is loosening and whether interest rate expectations are changing. Don’t treat emotions as logic, just start with that.