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As the U.S. government shutdown prolongs, the release of non-farm payroll data keeps getting delayed. The September data, originally scheduled to be released in early October, is finally expected to be published today.
Looking at market expectations for the non-farm employment indicator, it is projected to increase by about 50k in September, up from a 22,000 increase in August. Honestly, this signals that the job market is quite cooling down. The unemployment rate is also expected to stay around 4.3%.
One more thing to watch is wage trends, as the average hourly wage is expected to rise by 0.3% month-over-month, with an annual growth rate of 4.7%, indicating little change. Ultimately, even as non-farm employment slows, wage growth continues.
Interestingly, the October non-farm payroll index has been completely canceled. Due to budget issues, census data collection was not conducted. As a result, this September data will likely be the only employment indicator to watch for a while.