Recently, the Australian dollar's rebound has been quite interesting. I noticed that household expenditure data exploded, with the October month-on-month increase far exceeding expectations, which suggests that the Reserve Bank of Australia might really stop cutting interest rates. More importantly, the market is now starting to bet on a rate hike in 2026, which directly pushed up the outlook for the AUD/USD exchange rate.

From the data, Australia's inflation remains somewhat stubborn, with the year-on-year CPI exceeding expectations. Coupled with such strong household spending, the probability of the central bank shifting its stance is increasing. Major institutions are raising their forecasts for the Australian dollar, some saying it could rise to 0.71, others to 0.70. These forecasts mostly point to the question: will the AUD still fall? The answer is: in the short term, the AUD will continue to rise.

However, I think how long this rally can last is still a question. The policies on the dollar side are also changing, and the global economy has uncertainties. The AUD's trend will definitely have fluctuations, but from the perspective of the central bank's policy shift, the AUD's outlook remains relatively strong.