Date: April 27, 2026 (Singapore Time)

Short-term Impact (Next 1–7 days)
1)
· Event: The U.S. President states that the Iran war "will end soon" and signals a restart of negotiations.
· Impact: Markets begin trading "conflict convergence expectations" → Short-term oil price volatility intensifies (initial decline followed by fluctuation), risk assets attempt to rebound.
· Focus: Whether specific negotiation times and locations are confirmed.
2)
· Event: Iran proposes new ceasefire conditions through Pakistan, including lifting blockades and arrangements for the strait system.
· Impact: Negotiations enter the "substantive bargaining stage" → Market divergence increases, volatility remains high.
· Focus: Whether the conditions are accepted by the U.S. side (especially control of the strait).
3)
· Event: U.S. stock futures weaken collectively, gold declines, crude oil rises, and the market re-prices geopolitical risks.
· Impact: Typical "energy up + risk assets down" combination → Global shift to risk aversion phase.
· Focus: Whether funds continue to flow into the dollar and energy assets.
4)
· Event: The first batch of U.S. crude oil arrives in Japan, and Asia begins accelerating the replacement of Middle Eastern energy supplies.
· Impact: Supply chain restructuring begins → Benefiting U.S. energy exports, hurting Middle Eastern pricing power.
· Focus: Whether Asia expands its procurement scale from the U.S.
5)
· Event: The Middle East conflict shows no signs of easing, and experts judge it will be difficult to end in the short term.
· Impact: Market expectations shift from "event shock" to "long-term pricing" → Oil prices and inflation centers rise.
· Focus: Whether new military escalations or signals of negotiation breakdown occur.

Long-term Impact (Next several weeks to months)
6)
· Event: The Hormuz crisis has caused about 20% of global oil and large amounts of LNG supplies to be interrupted.
· Impact: The global energy system enters a restructuring cycle → Long-term oil price center rises, commodities benefit.
· Focus: The pace of supply recovery and the construction of alternative pathways.
7)
· Event: The energy shock prompts a global reassessment of "fossil fuel dependency risks."
· Impact: Investment in new energy and power systems accelerates → Long-term positive for the new energy industry chain.
· Focus: Whether national policies quickly shift toward energy transition.
8)
· Event: The Middle East landscape evolves toward a "bilateral structure of Iran-Israel confrontation."
· Impact: Geopolitical conflicts become normalized → Long-term market risk premiums increase.
· Focus: Whether a stable confrontation forms or the front lines continue to expand.
9)
· Event: Global energy trade flows change (Asia and Europe shift toward U.S. procurement).
· Impact: U.S. energy pricing power increases → Dollar assets become more attractive.
· Focus: Whether U.S. export capacity becomes a bottleneck.
10)
· Event: The conflict drives the global economy to face "high energy costs + low growth" pressures.
· Impact: Stagflation risk rises → Negative for stocks, positive for commodities and cash flow assets.
· Focus: Whether central banks' policies shift (prioritizing anti-inflation).