There’s talk that if Bitcoin falls below $60,000, it could mark a turning point for the current cycle. Looking at Kaiko Research’s analysis, it seems that when the price dropped to around $59,930 earlier this year, it was already in the middle stage of a bear market.

After the excitement following the halving settles down, the market is likely entering a correction phase that typically lasts about 12 months. Based on on-chain data and the price movements of major coins, it feels like the market is now approaching a key support level to determine whether the 4-year cycle will hold.

Trading volume is especially interesting: spot trading volume on major CEXs is down by nearly 30% month-over-month, and Bitcoin and Ether futures positions have shrunk from $29 billion to $25 billion. It’s clear that leverage is being reduced. Indicators of an excessively bearish, multi-cycle sell-off are also showing up, so the market’s view is that any rebound isn’t a question of “if,” but rather “when.” Kaiko’s year-over-year data shows a similar analysis too, with some reading that position adjustments on the scale of $21 billion could continue through June.