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I noticed that open interest in Bitcoin futures has decreased by 6% over the week — that's a quite noticeable signal. Meanwhile, the basis for three-month contracts remains around 2.5% annually. For comparison, that's roughly the yield on Treasury bills — not aggressive at all.
Here's what's interesting: a basis at this level indicates that the speculative premium has almost completely evaporated. Previously, such levels were suitable for deploying positions, but now? The derivatives market is completely risk-free. This is not a bottom, not euphoria, just a neutral state.
Most traders end their analysis here, without digging deeper. But it's exactly at this point that the most interesting insights into the true state of the market begin.