I just noticed an interesting point on the BTC chart — on the three-day timeframe, a so-called death cross has formed, where the 50-day moving average has crossed below the 200-day moving average. This is one of the most reliable bearish signals in technical analysis, and history shows that such patterns rarely end quietly.

If we look at previous cycles, every time this signal appeared since 2014 during bearish markets, Bitcoin dropped sharply. In 2018 and 2022, the decline was about 52%, and in the earlier cycle, it was even worse — around 57%. The current situation looks similar: BTC is trading below both trend lines, momentum has been lost after attempting to reach $74K. Momentum indicators show a neutral zone, but the overall structure is clearly weakening.

If history repeats itself, target levels will be in the $36K–$40K range. The $40K level corresponds to a Fibonacci extension, and $36K is the 52% drop observed earlier. Interestingly, both of these levels are also marked by Fibonacci extensions from previous bear markets, making them potential accumulation zones. At the time of writing, BTC is trading around $77,780, still above these levels, but the trend has clearly shifted. It’s worth watching whether the current resistance holds or if we will see a more significant decline.