During rush hour, riding the elevator without signal, I can only focus on two things: interest rate expectations and large on-chain transfers. Basically, once interest rates are "confirmed" to go up, everyone's risk appetite drops like deflating, and positions shift from "wanting to take more" to "just avoiding a blow-up." I myself will also turn off leverage first, leaving some ammunition to wait for the emotions to cool down.

Recently, some regions have been tightening and loosening taxes and compliance measures alternately. These news may not immediately reflect in prices, but they directly influence the psychological expectations of inflows and outflows: whether one can smoothly enter and exit, and whether to keep more stablecoins on the sidelines. Anyway, when I see large transfers suddenly becoming frequent, I assume someone is repositioning in advance to hedge risks. I don’t follow the noise, just take screenshots for records, and compare later. Let’s see.