These days, I've been seeing stablecoin supply being used as a "market switch" to talk about, along with explaining ETF net inflows and OTC funds all together... I'm a bit sleepy. The correlation stuff is so good at playing out, honestly, it's just a lot of transfer paths: entering OTC first, then going into exchanges, then on-chain / minting again. When the time gaps widen, it looks like causality, but it might just be echoes of the same wave of sentiment.

And now, on-chain data tools / tagging systems are also being criticized for lagging behind, or even misleading. I've fallen into that trap myself: last night, I was excited about "whale entry" and wanted to jump into a high-volatility pool, but then I checked the timestamps and it looked like old transaction data being retroactively labeled... Forget it, I’ll stick to my own entry and exit criteria. I’d rather miss out on some than be pushed by narratives to rush in.

What I’ve learned isn’t a technique, but: don’t rush to find a "must be true" story for every curve.