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I just looked at the chart of stablecoin supply again, and I saw someone using ETF net inflows as the "next trigger," so I casually aligned the two lines and got excited... I used to do the same when I was an LP, but I was later educated by Uniswap to be honest: a chart is a chart, money is money. Recently, the fee rates have been quite extreme, and in the group, people are arguing whether it's a reversal or just more bubble squeezing. Looking at it, I feel a bit exhausted.
To put it simply, having more stablecoins doesn't necessarily mean it's time to enter, and ETF inflows don't mean pushing spot prices immediately. Off-chain funds might first circulate elsewhere, or just switch channels. Correlation can be very deceptive, especially when everyone's emotions are running high. Right now, I’m focusing on risk boundaries: don’t follow fee rates with leverage, don’t let a few charts dictate your positions, survive first and then talk about returns, period.