I noticed an interesting pattern that has been repeating for several cycles. When Bitcoin breaks down from its macro triangle, it usually doesn't mean a rebound but the start of a more serious correction phase. Many miss this until the movement has already begun.

This is clearly visible in historical data. Take 2018 and 2022 — the destruction of the macro structure led to an acceleration of the bearish move before the price formed a bottom. But the current situation more closely resembles 2014, when consolidation was happening below the triangle's base. If history repeats, BTC could hover in a sideways range for a long time, with a ceiling around $82,500.

It’s evident that after breaking out of the macro triangle, characteristic consolidation rectangles form. In 2018 and 2022, they appeared at the bottom of the bear market, while in 2014, there were two separate ranges — first right after the breakout, then another at the final bottom. If the pattern repeats, the current consolidation could be just an intermediate phase, not the end of the decline.

From a technical perspective, the picture looks bearish. The price is trading below the EMA on higher timeframes, confirming the downward trend. On weekly charts, a “head and shoulders” pattern is forming. RSI is in the overbought zone, and MACD indicates a shift in momentum toward bearish. The last candle closed as a bearish doji.

Liquidity is concentrated below the current price, and upward liquidity has already been exhausted. On lower timeframes, there has been a structural change and a breakdown below recent lows. The last rally was mainly driven by news, without organic price confirmation. Historically, such impulsive moves end with a correction.

Currently, BTC is trading around $77.81K. All factors combined point to further decline as the more likely scenario. It’s important to monitor the macro structure and consolidation levels.