Bitcoin is showing signs of recovery, but it still lacks the necessary fuel for a sustained rally. It’s interesting to note how working with Bitcoin in this scenario requires patience and a well-defined strategy.

The macroeconomic environment has improved significantly. Inflation has slowed down, which strengthens bets on interest rate cuts this year. This should be positive for risk assets, and liquidity may be returning to the cryptocurrency markets after tense months. But here’s the important detail: the Federal Reserve will not implement aggressive easing. The approach will be measured and gradual.

This changes everything when you try to work with Bitcoin. The market is stuck in waves of movement, not in clean breakouts. Tactical recoveries appear, but each one encounters consistent selling. In the recent overnight tape, Bitcoin rose to $68,500 before reversing and falling below $66,000. The reason? A stronger dollar and more hawkish Fed minutes. These intraday reversals show that the gains are still fragile.

What also stands out is the correlation with the dollar. When the dollar strengthens, Bitcoin suffers. Analysts warn that if investors become convinced of a dollar uptrend, volatility could spike. This complicates any short-term strategy for working with Bitcoin.

Sentiment remains delicate. Fear indicators in crypto registered single digits in nine of the last fourteen days. Outflows of stablecoins from major exchanges suggest tight liquidity. Long-term holders show stress signals comparable to the end of bear markets in 2022.

So, how to work with Bitcoin now? Tactical moves are still possible, especially when the position becomes very defensive. But a lasting rally probably requires clearer evidence of disinflation, a weaker dollar, and steady demand in the spot market. Until then, anyone looking to work with Bitcoin needs to be prepared for an irregular path, with plenty of volatility along the way.