Bitcoin is currently at a critical turning point, and in my view, the next few days could prove to be quite decisive. For now, BTC is trading around $77.83K, but the real question is whether it can break upward above $76,000 or whether it will be pulled back downward.

Looking at the daily chart, the situation still appears weak. Bitcoin is stuck below the 100-day and 200-day moving averages, and the descending trend line still looks strong. The 100-day MA is near $80,000, while the 200-day MA is around $90,000. Together, these suggest that the overall trend is still tilted downward.

What’s interesting is the rebound from the $60,000 support zone. When the price fell there, buyers stepped in quite aggressively and pushed the price back up to $68,000. However, this is still a recovery phase, not a full rally. The real test will come when BTC needs to break through the $76,000 to $80,000 area—this is where the old support has now turned into resistance.

On the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin is consolidating within an ascending channel. This indicates that it isn’t a complete bullish reversal, but rather a gradual recovery. Recently, sellers pushed the price back from the $72,000-$75,000 area, which shows that there is still selling pressure at this level. The RSI has also bounced back from the overbought zone toward the neutral level, meaning short-term momentum is weakening.

On-chain data is telling an interesting story. Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL) is now around 0.20, which is well below the cycle top. Put simply, the market has already taken out a large portion of its paper gains. This is generally a healthy sign, because it indicates that excessive speculation has cooled off.

But it’s important to understand what “horizontal” means here. In technical analysis, horizontal support and resistance levels are the prices where the market repeatedly bounces. This $76,000 to $80,000 zone is exactly that—a horizontal resistance area where buyers will have to do real work.

So the next roadmap is clear. If BTC breaks through this horizontal resistance, it could mark the start of a genuine rally. But if it reverses again here, a pullback toward $64,000-$65,000 and then possibly back to $60,000 is possible. For now, this is a decisive point, and the next few days will be very important.