CITIC Construction Investment Futures: Recent weather conditions have had some impact on rubber supply for the 2026 harvest season, but the magnitude of the impact is likely less than that of 2024.

Recently, Thailand and other major global natural rubber producing regions are gradually entering their seasonal increase in production. After experiencing high temperatures and low rainfall in April, recent rainfall in main producing areas like Thailand has increased month-on-month, while temperatures have not significantly decreased. According to the World Meteorological Organization’s forecast, an El Niño phenomenon may occur in mid-2026, and prolonged high temperatures could accelerate water evaporation inside rubber trees, reduce the efficiency of synthesizing fresh latex, and slow down latex flow after tapping, thereby decreasing collection efficiency. Compared to the relatively extreme weather conditions of 2024, the current global main producing regions have not seen a significant decrease in rainfall year-on-year compared to the same period in 2024; temperatures during the same period in 2024 have also not been notably higher. Therefore, it is expected that recent weather conditions will have some impact on the supply during the 2026 tapping season, but the magnitude of the impact may be less than that of 2024. Recently, downstream markets have generally entered pre-holiday stocking stages, and demand-side changes are minimal. (CITIC Construction Investment Futures)