I'm now looking at whether the project is working seriously, rather than just paying attention to how loudly they're shouting, but rather flipping through the treasury's spending rhythm: where the money is spent, whether the spending is continuous, whether it matches the milestones. For example, if it was agreed that this quarter would launch the testnet, but the treasury expenses are all "market cooperation/consultant fees," I would start to feel a bit uneasy... Of course, I might just be too sensitive.

As for "long-term," my own definition is quite casual: at least one quarter, where I can see two or three deliveries + reviews, rather than a new narrative every week. Recently, someone was talking about tax increases or tightening/relaxing compliance in certain regions, which, frankly, will directly affect everyone's deposit and withdrawal expectations. When there's tension, it's easier to feel anxious and seek "certainty," but the more you do that, the more likely you are to get caught up. Anyway, I just watch slowly; if milestones aren't met, I just consider them still on the way, and don't let emotions get involved.