Just finished baking a batch of bread, and casually checked the supply of stablecoins and ETF inflows and outflows, and the group chat started to twist the two lines into "so it’s going to take off / crash." Honestly, the correlation looks quite like causation, but many times it’s just the same wave of sentiment turning: money outside the market wants to come in, first stopping in stablecoins, or it might just be switching parking spots for risk aversion, not necessarily rushing into spot assets immediately. ETF is the same; inflows and outflows are more like the rhythm of large funds adjusting their positions, don’t treat it as divine decree.

That “inflation + studio + coin price spiral” collapse point in blockchain games, I was actually a bit slow to catch on… I only realized a few days ago that friends were still pushing it, and then the coin price finished writing the story first. Anyway, I’m now just watching on-chain activity and fund retention time; when it heats up, I cool down, when it cools, I pick up some, small positions, to avoid being blown up by my own assumptions.