Recently, some people have been using the conclusion that "an increase in stablecoin supply = a rally is coming" — I find that quite awkward. Frankly, changes in supply often just mean money moving from one shell to another, or exchanges/market makers adjusting their inventories; it’s not necessarily the same as "ETF inflows of off-exchange funds." To truly analyze cause and effect, at least align the timeline: when did minting/redemption occur, was the on-chain flow going into exchanges or back to custody addresses, was the ETF net subscription or hedging offset... if these aren’t aligned, the correlation can easily be spun into a story.

Additionally, recently some regions have fluctuated between tightening and relaxing taxes and compliance, and deposit/withdrawal expectations can also cause market sentiment to swing hot and cold. Slight increases or decreases in stablecoins don’t necessarily mean "something big is happening." I’m still mainly watching for abnormal transfers and contract upgrades — don’t rush to find a single explanation for the market. How things will develop later, you can think about it yourselves.