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The biggest feature of this cycle is that the altcoin season is absent.
I think there are a few reasons:
1. The funding structure has changed
This round, BTC was mainly driven up by ETF institutional funds. BlackRock buys BTC, not AVAX. Institutional funds are unlikely to rotate into altcoins; in the past, the altcoin season was a relay game among retail investors, but now retail investors are fewer.
2. Altcoin supply explosion
The speed of new coin launches in 2024-2025 is ten times faster than before.
3. BTC.D has not experienced systemic decline
BTC dominance has been hovering above 60% throughout this cycle. During the last altcoin season, BTC.D dropped to 45-50%.
4. Fragmented narratives
Previously, ETH led a wave, SOL led a wave, with a main storyline. This time, AI, RWA, Meme, DePIN each have their own momentum; funds are dispersed, and each sector rises briefly but not sustainably.