Brothers, something big has happened.

Gunshots were fired at the White House dinner, and Trump was urgently taken away,
but that's not the main point.
What truly impacts the market is his subsequent statement—cancelling US-Iran talks, outright calling it a waste of time.
The Strait of Hormuz has been locked down for nearly two months, with the annual number of passing oil tankers dropping from 130 to single digits, and Brent crude oil has been pushed up to $106.
But these are just the background. Next week, the global markets will face two critical exams, which will directly determine whether you feast or get beaten before the holiday.
The first exam, the inflation stress test for global central banks.
Next week, from the Bank of Japan to the Federal Reserve, many central banks will hold intensive meetings, focusing on one key question: with oil prices rising so much, what to do about inflation?
Especially the Federal Reserve meeting early Thursday morning, which will be Powell’s last major meeting as chairman. The market has already cast its vote with its feet, with expectations of rate cuts this year plummeting from at least two times two months ago to less than one now.
What does this mean? It means the valuation oxygen for global growth assets is being drained. The prolonged high-interest-rate environment will continue to make funds avoid high-valued sectors and shift toward assets with stable cash flow and inflation resistance.
The second exam, the performance test of the seven giants in the US stock market.
After Wednesday’s close, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta will report earnings, with Apple wrapping up on Thursday.
These five tech giants control the lifeblood of global tech stocks, and any statement about future capital expenditure in their earnings reports will influence the entire market sentiment.
If they continue to pour funds into AI development, the logic of computing power, chips, servers, and optical communication still holds, and adjustments might be opportunities.
If they start tightening spending, the entire tech growth sector will come under pressure.
So, what should we do in the last few days before the May Day holiday? Three strategies.
First, recognize the stage and give up illusions.
Before the holiday, markets are usually cautious, liquidity decreases, and volatility increases. The core strategy is defense, not offense. Keep positions below 50% and hold cash.
Second, adjust the structure, switch between high and low.
Fund flows have already shown the problem. Focus on sectors with real performance support and benefiting from inflation logic, such as energy, resources, and shipping.
At the same time, allocate undervalued, high-dividend, defensive assets as ballast during market turbulence.
For high-flying, crowded tech stocks with large short-term gains, don’t chase highs; wait for a pullback and news confirmation.
Third, watch for signals and patiently wait.
Next, focus on two signals:
One is the Fed’s attitude toward inflation—whether it remains hawkish or signals a shift.
Two is the tech giants’ capital expenditure plans—whether they continue to ramp up or start to slow down.
Before these two results come out, observe more and act less.
Remember what Brother Qiang said: investing is not gambling on news, but responding to changes. External gunfire and negotiations only affect the rhythm; the true determinants are always funds and performance.
Before the holiday, tighten the defense line, save bullets, and wait until the situation clarifies after the holiday before taking action.