CITIC Securities: Supply disruptions are still ongoing, pre-holiday stockpiling supports lithium prices

CITIC Securities Research reports indicate that since Zimbabwe’s complete ban on lithium ore exports at the end of February, there have been no shipments of lithium concentrate so far. Although export quotas have been allocated, shipments still require time, and transit time could be as long as three months. Assuming shipments resume by the end of April, it will still take a long time to transport the materials back to domestic lithium salt factories, which may impact raw material supply in China during May and June, and even affect production in July. Recently, four mica lithium mines in Jiangxi simultaneously disclosed mining rights transfer benefit assessment reports. Subsequent license renewals will enter the suspension and environmental assessment phase, intensifying supply concerns for the second and third quarters. Meanwhile, the entire industry chain remains in a relatively low inventory pattern, with downstream production expectations increasing month by month. High growth in energy storage and new energy vehicle export data, along with weak supply expectations, strong consumption realities, and industry low inventory levels, are providing upward support for prices. (First Financial)