Research: Polymarket is led by approximately 3% of accounts in price discovery and earns over 30% returns, while about 67% of accounts bear all losses.

BlockBeats News, April 27 — A paper by researchers from London Business School and Yale University analyzed all trades on Polymarket from 2023 to 2025, finding that about 3% of accounts generated most of the price discovery on the platform. The study covered 1.72 million accounts, 210,322 markets, and approximately $13.76 billion in trading volume. The paper states that only 3.14% of accounts can be classified as “expert winners,” meaning their order flow consistently predicted short-term price fluctuations and final outcomes. These accounts, along with market makers, account for less than 3.5% of all accounts but captured over 30% of all profits. Accounts classified as unlucky or poorly skilled losers make up 67% of the total, bearing all of the platform’s total losses.

Regarding suspected insider trading, the authors flagged 1,950 accounts that opened positions shortly before a single event and went silent after the event settled. These accounts moved the price by about 7 to 12 times more per dollar than skilled traders, but due to over-concentration on isolated events, they failed to influence overall accuracy. The paper includes a case study focusing on three accounts opened between December 27 and January 3, which bet on Maduro’s ousting before the disclosure of U.S. military actions, earning over $630k. This scenario aligns with the first insider trading lawsuit involving event contracts filed by the U.S. CFTC on Thursday, accusing U.S. Army Sergeant Gannon Ken Van Dyke of trading based on confidential information prior to a raid.