🔥Research: Only 3% of Polymarket accounts dominate price discovery, while 67% of accounts bear all losses

On April 27, researchers from London Business School and Yale University jointly published a paper analyzing all transactions on Polymarket from 2023 to 2025, covering 1.72 million accounts, 210,322 markets, and approximately $13.76 billion in trading volume. The results show that only 3.14% of accounts are classified as “expert winners”; their order flow consistently predicts short-term price fluctuations and the final outcomes. This group of accounts, together with market makers, accounts for less than 3.5% of all accounts but earns more than 30% of the profits. Meanwhile, the “loser” accounts making up 67% of the total bear all of the platform’s total losses. In terms of suspected insider trading, the authors identified 1,950 accounts that opened shortly before a single event and went quiet after the event was settled…