Huatai Futures: Short-term oil prices still serve as a barometer of Middle East tensions

Short-term oil prices remain a barometer of Middle East tensions. Last night, Trump initially threatened to bomb Iran but extended the ceasefire agreement at the last minute, waiting for Iran to submit a final proposal. Both sides are expected to hold talks on Thursday. Currently, Iran is deeply divided internally, with hardline Revolutionary Guard factions and civilian government officials wavering between confrontation and compromise. After the U.S. blockade of the strait, Iranian oil tankers also find it difficult to pass through, severely impacting Iran’s oil revenue. Both sides are now engaged in an economic tug-of-war. The U.S. faces high domestic inflation and political pressure from allies, while Iran faces a sharp decline in oil income and currency devaluation. Whoever can endure the pain better will have greater leverage at the negotiating table. In the short term, the outlook for Middle East stability remains uncertain. (Huatai Futures)