Study Finds 3% of Polymarket Traders Capture Over 30% of Gains

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A revised working paper analyzing $13.76 billion of Polymarket trading found that 3.14% of accounts captured more than 30% of gains. The authors said 67% of accounts classified as unlucky or unskilled losers absorbed the platform’s aggregate losses. The paper also said suspected insider-like accounts were too isolated to explain Polymarket’s overall accuracy.

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