BTC 15-minute slight increase of 0.53%: Large BTC transactions continue to net outflows from exchanges supporting the price

On April 26, 2026, from 21:45 to 22:00 (UTC), the price of BTC rose from 77,838.3 USDT to 78,921.1 USDT, achieving a 0.53% return within 15 minutes, with a price fluctuation of 1.39%. Market volatility was limited, but on-chain capital flows resonated with macro event windows, driving a gentle upward price movement.

The main driver of this anomaly was the sustained large net outflow of BTC from exchanges. According to on-chain data, on April 25, large BTC net outflows over $10k amounted to -641.84 BTC, and net outflows over $10 million reached as high as -6,759.09 BTC. The single-day net outflow in mid-April even reached -7,300 BTC. Holders tend to prefer long-term holding rather than selling, with exchange reserves dropping below 2.04 million coins, and tightening liquidity directly reducing selling pressure, providing on-chain support for price increases.

Secondly, the derivatives market maintained a stable structure without leverage liquidations. The funding rate was +0.0008%, with long positions accounting for 43.4%, indicating a market sentiment leaning bullish rather than extreme. On-chain trading volume remained at an average of $11 billion daily, with no abnormal surge, suggesting that this rise was not driven by a single large transfer but rather a technical correction amid existing capital battles.

Meanwhile, macro event windows amplified the gains. On April 27, the Bitcoin 2026 Conference and the upcoming Federal Reserve FOMC meeting on April 28 heightened market attention. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index rebounded from extreme fear (15) to cautious optimism. Investors preemptively positioned themselves, creating a “buy the rumor” effect. Multiple factors resonated, pushing short-term prices higher.

Caution is needed regarding subsequent risks: continued decline in exchange liquidity could exacerbate volatility if negative news hits; significant events on April 27-28 carry a “sell the fact” risk; overly concentrated bullish sentiment might trigger short-term squeezes. It is recommended to monitor on-chain capital flow changes and FOMC meeting outcomes, and remain alert to short-term corrections after news releases.