In the middle of the night, I saw another large transfer on the blockchain being screenshot as "smart money," and in the comment section, someone got excited and wanted to follow the trade... I'm actually quite afraid of this. When a whale's wallet moves, it doesn't necessarily mean they're opening a long position; often, it's more like repositioning, hedging, or just moving chips in and out of exchanges. When hot and cold wallets move, it's easier to be over-interpreted. To put it simply, think carefully beforehand: are they gradually building a position, or are they insuring an existing one? Also, I'm not so dogmatic about "long-term." If I can withstand a round of emotional fluctuations, at least two to three weeks or a month or two without making reckless moves, I consider that long-term. As for quarterly moves... it depends on whether I can sleep well. Anyway, when I see abnormal transfers, I will be alert first; I prefer to miss out than be led by the rhythm.