Wu's weekly macro indicators and analysis: Japan and U.S. central bank interest rate decisions, Iran situation, U.S. PCE

Compilation: GaryMa Wu Talks Blockchain

Summary

Last week, Iran’s situation fluctuated on the edge of diplomatic games and military pressure; this week, ongoing focus on Iran, with a super central bank week, mainly focusing on the Bank of Japan and Federal Reserve rate decisions and the US March PCE.

Last Week Review

Iran’s situation fluctuated on the edge of diplomatic games and military pressure: the two-week ceasefire agreement set to expire on the 21st was temporarily extended by Trump to buy time for negotiations, but both sides refused to back down on core red lines such as “uranium enrichment zeroing” and “full opening of the Strait of Hormuz,” leading to a deadlock in Islamabad negotiations; meanwhile, despite the ceasefire in name, low-intensity friction between the US, Israel, and Iran in Syria and surrounding areas never ceased, and markets remained highly alert due to concerns that a breakdown in negotiations could trigger larger-scale conflicts.

Tesla’s total revenue for Q1 2026 was $22.39B, up 16% year-over-year; gross profit was $4.72 billion, with a gross margin of 21.1%; operating profit was $941 million, with an operating margin of 4.2%; GAAP net profit was $477 million, non-GAAP net profit was $1.45B; operating cash flow was $3.94B, free cash flow was $1.44B, and cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments totaled $44.74B; regarding digital assets, the company did not disclose Bitcoin trading operations, and the book value of digital assets decreased from approximately $1.01B at the end of the previous quarter to $786 million, mainly due to fair value adjustments caused by Bitcoin price declines.

U.S. Customs and Border Protection launched the first phase of tariff refunds on April 20, 2026, involving approximately $166 billion, allowing importers to apply for refunds of tariffs and interest through a new system.

For the week ending April 18, 2026, initial unemployment claims in the U.S. were 214k, versus an expectation of 210k; the previous figure was revised from 207k to 208k.

The University of Michigan’s consumer confidence index for April was finalized at 49.8, higher than expected and above the preliminary 47.6, but below the March final of 53.3, hitting a nearly four-year low due to escalating concerns over inflation amid the Iran conflict.

The U.S. April one-year inflation expectation final value was 4.7%, versus an estimate of 4.8%, and the previous value was 4.8%.

Key Events & Indicators This Week

April 27

Ongoing focus on Iran situation

April 28

Bank of Japan rate decision

April 30

Federal Reserve rate decision (02:00)

China April official manufacturing PMI (09:30)

European Central Bank rate decision (20:15)

U.S. March core PCE price index annual rate (20:30)

May 2

Berkshire Hathaway 2026 Annual Shareholders Meeting (20:00)