Recently, I came across many charts, linking stablecoin supply, ETF net inflows, and OTC capital inflows into a "causal chain," which made me both want to laugh and feel a bit scared... Honestly, correlation can be very deceptive; an increase in stablecoins might just mean people are holding their money on-chain waiting for opportunities, or it could be just the shifting of existing holdings, not necessarily indicating an imminent surge. The same goes for ETFs—net inflows don’t mean immediate buying pressure pushing prices up; rhythm, hedging, settlement—these are all quite tricky. The turning point is: macro discussions are starting to talk about rate cut expectations, the US dollar index, and risk assets rising and falling together. When everyone’s sentiment heats up, they love to find "evidence," but when the market really turns, it’s often the most confident logic that first collapses... I’m trying to tell myself less stories now, slow down my positions, don’t get caught up—just like that for now.