US-Iran Stalemate: Both Sides Believe They Hold the Upper Hand

On April 26, after the temporary suspension of US-Iran peace negotiations, Iran and the United States found themselves in an awkward stalemate characterized as ‘No War, No Peace.’ Both sides believe they can endure economic and military pressures longer: Iranian officials are confident they can withstand the economic pain of war better than the Trump administration, while Trump believes the US can weaken Iran through measures such as blocking the Strait of Hormuz. Although a ceasefire has been maintained recently, the lack of a permanent agreement has left the situation in a state of strategic limbo. Former Iranian government officials and conservative media have likened the current situation to the continuation of the Iran-Iraq War from June last year—war has ended, but without lasting guarantees. While both sides have retreated from the high costs of full-scale war, they still rely on the logic of force and pressure, which may pose greater dangers than a short-term conflict. Efforts to restart a ceasefire mediated by Pakistan are progressing slowly, and the global economy, particularly oil supply, faces serious threats, with the stalemate creating long-term uncertainty for all parties and regional stability. According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of a ‘permanent peace agreement between the US and Iran’ before April 30 is only 2%, before May 31 is 32%, and before June 30 is 48%.