Recently, looking at the curves of stablecoin supply and ETFs, it's indeed quite easy to subconsciously think "money is coming in, so it should go up." But honestly, correlation is just correlation; most of the time, it's just everyone looking for a safe haven at the same time, or moving assets off-chain to hold in a different shell, which doesn't mean they are immediately rushing to buy risky assets.

These days, cross-chain bridges are having issues again, and oracles are reporting outrageous prices, and a bunch of people in the group start saying "waiting for confirmation"... I do the same, pulling my hand back. Market sentiment is something that can deceive more than on-chain data.

Anyway, I’ve set smaller goals: not chasing every big news, not rushing to explain every turning point, just focusing on a few familiar wallet routes and common entry and exit points. It seems slow, but surprisingly, it helps me stick to it better and makes fewer mistakes of "overconfidence."