Today, BTC’s direction is, in qualitative terms, still ranging in the short term with a bearish bias. The daily MACD shows a top divergence (bearish divergence), the 4-hour shows a top divergence (bearish divergence), bulls are actively withdrawing, and ATR is cooling down across the entire cycle—these four signals resonate and point to a true mid-term retreat. But the 1-hour bottom at 77,100 has already been stubbornly defended by the bulls, and the weekly’s broader direction is still on the bulls’ side, forming defense. So today’s issue remains: “Is the mid-term retreat vs. the short term still holding its defense?” The 77,600 main resistance and the 76,300 main support are the two key levels.

The more likely script, in my view, is: if the 4-hour close cannot materially stand above the 77,600 main resistance, and then the 1-hour drops below 77,100 again, there is a chance of a breakdown followed by a pullback and a rebound back to around 77,100, where you can short lightly on higher prices. The target is near the 76,300–76,000 support zone. For defense: if the 1-hour candle’s body closes back above 77,600 and you go short on the short-term, you need to watch whether you should exit.

If it rebounds directly, then when the 1-hour candle’s body and volume surge and stand above the 77,600 main resistance, and the 4-hour close confirms back above 77,700, that would be a case of going long in line with the trend once the price has stabilized. The target is 78,400–79,400, near this round’s highest point. For risk control, be careful if the 1-hour candle’s body drops below 77,400.

Today, BTC’s daily bullish-bearish dividing line is at 76,300.
Today, BTC’s core key level is at 77,100.