Honestly, recently watching the supply of stablecoins on the chain increase, whenever it rises, someone starts shouting "Off-chain money is coming in = it’s about to take off," I feel a bit like laughing but don’t dare to... Correlation can be so deceiving. An increase in supply could be due to minting, chain switching, market making and stocking, or even some projects moving assets around in preparation for a launch, not necessarily new buying pressure.

The same goes for ETFs; inflows and outflows are obviously important, but they’re more like a "sentiment thermometer," not a switch. Especially lately, with expectations of rate cuts, the US dollar index, and risk assets moving together up and down, macro signals get chaotic, and on-chain data is more easily over-interpreted.

I’m also not sure which line is the cause and which is the effect. Anyway, my usual approach remains the same: if I don’t understand the narrative, I don’t chase; I’d rather miss out. After dinner and late-night snacks, I check my positions again. If I can sleep peacefully, that’s a win.