Polymarket's traffic king for the "2028 Presidential Election" is... LeBron James???

Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author | Azuma (@azuma_eth)

“Barron’s” reporter Nick Devor posted a very “bizarre” phenomenon this morning on X — in the prediction event for the “2028 Presidential Election” on Polymarket, about 70% of the trading volume is concentrated on some candidates who are almost impossible (real-time probability less than 1%) to win.

For example, the highest trading volume is surprisingly NBA star LeBron James (LeBron James, $48.41 million), followed by entertainment socialite Kim Kardashian (Kim Kardashian, $33.84 million), and even some candidates who do not have U.S. citizenship (not eligible to run), such as the world’s richest Elon Musk (Elon Musk, $23.14 million), New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani (Mamdani, $18.39 million)…

As for those real high-probability candidates, such as the current leading vice-presidential candidate JD Vance (trading volume $10.58 million), California Governor Gavin Newsom (trading volume $15.71 million), Secretary of State Marco Rubio (trading volume $9.32 million), their trading volumes are far below those “internet celebrity candidates” mentioned above.

According to official data from Polymarket, the total trading volume for the “2028 Presidential Election” has already reached $549 million, making it the platform’s hottest betting event. But a closer look at the trading data of 36 candidates reveals the abnormal situation described above. Why is this? Are people crazy, betting on candidates who are almost or completely impossible to win?

The answer is naturally no. Earlier this year, Odaily wrote an article titled “Who is betting abnormally in prediction markets?”, using “Jesus’ Second Coming” and “Flat Earth Theory” as examples, explaining that the groups trading or providing liquidity in these absurd event markets can be categorized into three main types: “lottery players, bots, and arbitrageurs.”

Nick Devor’s explanation also aligns with the third logic we listed: he found that multiple top addresses hold the same amount of YES and NO shares on the same candidate, essentially to earn risk-free profits from Polymarket subsidies — to maintain long-term pricing accuracy, Polymarket offers a 4% annualized “holding reward” for some market positions based on total position value, and the “2018 Presidential Election” is one of these subsidy events.

Nick Devor stated that a 4% annualized return is higher than the real-time U.S. Treasury yield (5-year at 3.98%), so whales prefer this low-risk holding, such as buying NO shares of James or Kardashian (either way, whoever is popular, buy their NO), to earn this part of the return; holding both YES and NO shares simultaneously allows for risk-free profit.

As for why some users hold small amounts of YES on such low-probability candidates unilaterally, another X user, A5 (@probablythenuts), explained that in this multi-option market, Polymarket provides a feature that allows users to convert a set of NO shares into a corresponding set of YES shares.

Many users, considering liquidity depth or quote advantages, use this feature — that is, instead of directly buying YES shares of candidates they believe will win, they first buy NO shares of candidates they believe will not win, then convert these NO shares into a set of corresponding YES shares. Additionally, they can buy NO shares of multiple candidates and, after conversion, hold a set of YES shares of other candidates, including future candidates added to the event.

Therefore, in the Polymarket “2028 Presidential Election” event, users trading LeBron James and Kardashian are neither crazy nor stupid. They are either seeking stable annualized returns or aiming for better execution paths. Their operations may seem absurd, but behind them is still rational motivation.