Gunslinger, today’s BTC trend is characterized as either short-term sideways or slightly bearish consolidation. Daily MACD bearish divergence, 4-hour bearish divergence, active withdrawal by bulls, ATR cooling across all cycles—these four signals collectively point to a mid-term retreat, indicating a true downtrend. However, the 1-hour bottom at 77,100 has already been strongly defended by the bulls, and the weekly trend remains bullish, forming a support level. Therefore, today’s key issue is whether the mid-term is retreating while the short-term is still holding; the main resistance at 77,600 and the main support at 76,300 are two critical levels.

The more probable scenario, in my opinion, is that if the 4-hour candle fails to close above the 77,600 main resistance with a solid body, and the 1-hour chart drops below 77,100 again, there is a higher chance of a breakdown, followed by a rebound to around 77,100, with a light short position taken on the rise. The target is near the support zone of 76,300-76,000. If the 1-hour candle closes back above 77,600, short-term longs should be cautious about exiting.

If a genuine rebound occurs, then when the 1-hour candle volume increases and closes above 77,600, and the 4-hour candle confirms a return above 77,700, it indicates a solid footing and a trend-following long position. The target is 78,400-79,400, approaching this cycle’s highest point. For support, be cautious if the 1-hour candle closes below 77,400.

Today’s daily support/resistance boundary for BTC is 76,300.
Today’s core key level for BTC is 77,100.