BTC is currently below resistance, in a compressed buildup pattern, short-term bearish but medium-term bullish divergence support:

Bullish scenario (probability about 40%): Weekly MACD bullish reversal + RSI bottom divergence + Continuous buying by ETFs/institutions + Sufficient stablecoin reserves. If volume breaks above $79k–$80k and weekly close stays above, trend can confirm reversal to bullish, target $82k–$85k, long-term $91k [X]
Bearish scenario (probability about 60%): 15-minute MACD top divergence + 4-hour moving average death cross + Daily SAR bearish + Repeated resistance at $79k–$80k + Macro tightening. If $77,400–$77,650 support is broken, downside targets are $75,500 → $74,500 → $72,900–$71,900, extreme $68,500 [X][X]
Trading suggestions:
Maintain a bullish bias above $77,400, but beware of short-term top divergence and pullback risks.
Watch for a breakout above $79k–$80k : Volume breakout above this level is a trend reversal confirmation signal, can add to long positions, target $82k–$85k
. Short-term dip buy zone: $77,400–$77,650. If price stabilizes after a pullback to this area, consider light long entries with stop loss below $77,100 (4-hour/ daily SAR resonance).
$75,500 is the boundary of the rebound structure: a break below destroys the rebound pattern, requiring stop loss or shift to bearish outlook.
Weekend low liquidity: volatility may increase but directional breakout probability decreases. Suggest light positions and strict stop losses.