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Gold Loses Momentum, High Interest Rates Become an Obstacle
Gold price prospects are still shrouded in a tug-of-war between geopolitical sentiment and global macroeconomic pressures. Amid the ongoing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, precious metals’ price movements tend to be volatile.
Based on Bloomberg data, gold prices in the spot market were at US$ 4,709.50 per troy ounce on Friday (24/4/2026), up 0.33% from the previous day. However, over the week, gold prices fell by 2.57%.
President Commissioner of HFX International Futures, Sutopo Widodo, explained that current market conditions present a paradox for gold. On the one hand, gold benefits from its status as a safe haven as geopolitical uncertainty rises.
On the other hand, the surge in energy prices triggered by the conflict increases the risk of inflation and pushes expectations for high interest rates to last longer.
“The surge in energy prices is a double-edged sword. It strengthens the narrative of high interest rates, which ultimately weighs on gold,” Sutopo told Kontan on Thursday (23/4/2026).
Technically, gold’s movement approaching the US$ 4,700 per ounce level reflects pressure from the strengthening of the US dollar (AS) and the rise in the yield ( of 10-year US government bonds reaching 4.31%. This limits gold’s upside potential even though the risk premium from the conflict remains high.
Going forward, Sutopo believes gold prices are at risk of continuing to weaken in the short term. This is especially true if geopolitical tensions ease suddenly or if there is concrete progress in Iran’s peace proposals.
In addition, the market is also watching dynamics in US monetary policy, including the issue of Kevin Warsh being nominated for the US central bank, which is seen as signaling independence in maintaining monetary stability.
If economic data such as the PMI and US unemployment claims remain solid, expectations for interest rate hikes will strengthen further.
“Historically, rising interest rates have been negative sentiment for gold because they increase the opportunity cost of holding assets without yielding returns,” he added.
For the outlook for the first half of 2026, Sutopo projects gold prices will move within a fairly wide consolidation range, namely US$ 4,500 to US$ 4,900 per ounce.
In volatile conditions like today, he advises investors to put a wait-and-see approach first, or to accumulate gradually in technical support areas.
According to him, after gold prices corrected by around 10% since the start of the conflict, market focus has begun to shift.
“Investors’ attention is no longer solely on the escalation of the war, but also on how global monetary policy responds to inflation that tends to be ‘sticky’ due to the energy crisis,” Sutopo concluded.
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