The biggest feeling from watching the market these past few days isn't "opportunity is coming," but rather that liquidity is a bit dried up: thin order books, large slippage, transactions like walking on cotton, making it hard to exit. Frankly, during times like these, it's better to survive first and talk about bottom-fishing later. I need to be reminded not to hedge liquidity risk with "faith."

I will first look at a few rough on-chain signals: whether stablecoin net inflows have returned, whether borrowing interest rates have suddenly spiked, whether DEX depth has shrunk to the point of collapse with one push. Without these, the so-called "value coming out of the dip" might just be that no one is willing to buy. The inflation + studio + coin price spiral in on-chain games is essentially the same logic: when external buying dries up, the system only consumes itself, and in the end, liquidity always dies first.

So I am now more inclined to small positions, staggered entries, and the ability to withdraw at any time, preferring to earn less. Only when the market is willing to give transactions will it be my turn to talk about probabilities. That's all for now.