Just finished a late-night snack and was watching my positions for a bit, and I realized people are really quite strange: when I'm making paper profits, I can turn off the lights and go to sleep; when I start to see paper losses, even though I haven't closed the position, my mind automatically starts to dramatize, as if the loss has already become "certain." Basically, it's loss aversion, right? The sting of losing 1 dollar feels way worse than the thrill of earning 1 dollar.

Recently, I've been talking about rate cut expectations, the US dollar index, and risk assets rising and falling together. I don't dare take it too seriously; hearing too many macro narratives makes it easier to treat short-term fluctuations as conclusions. Now I can only force myself to think in terms of "probability": Is this trade within my acceptable probability range? If not, reduce a bit; don't hold on stubbornly until I can't sleep... Anyway, if I don't understand it, I won't chase; missing out is better than staying up all night.