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Thoughts on public blockchains in 2026:
Thoughts on public chains in 2026:
The strategy of “controlling inflation + high interest rate deposits + DeFi trifecta + founders’ meme + our own hyperliquid + crazy OTC selling to liquid funds” is no longer viable.
This is not only a problem that Monad, MegaETH, need to face, but also Rise, Fogo, and even N1. The main chains’ situations vary; Sei and Polygon still seem to be struggling, while most have already given up.
The loyalty of projects incubated on day 1 of public chains remains questionable, because among the few founders in the industry, options include BNB Chain, Solana, and even Base. Most new chains focus on the public chain foundation’s treasury. Once they secure funding through endorsements and attract the first wave of community users, founders are motivated: 1) to build their own app chain to support valuation, 2) to switch to other chains and compete.
As a result, some founders no longer call themselves part of the xx ecosystem, but say xx chain is our “GTM Partner.”
So, ecosystem projects are too weak to support, or too strong and end up backstabbing their backers like Lü Bu.
The original free-range, neutral public chain development model has basically ended, and the valuation model based on MEV income needs revision (@LeePima sensei)). Current public chains are more about bearing a certain controllability rather than potential; under a controllable economic system, they focus on fintech.
Future public chains will be a centralized power structure, with top-down dev shops and CVCs. The main role of the treasury will be M&A, with aggressive vertical integration rather than ecosystem cultivation. In other words, there will no longer be kingmakers like Solana (@mablejiang cc@).
In this sense, BNB Chain, Tempo, and Monad are heading in the same direction, just with different resource advantages and regional differences.
The final question is: how should we model FDV to speculate accordingly? And since the skill set is entirely geared toward token-selling, fee-extracting economic models—growth managers, operations, etc.—the old ticket may no longer fit the new era’s ship.