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Due to the U.S. government shutdown, the September non-farm employment data, which was a month late, has finally been released. The labor market appears to be weaker than expected, so it’s worth paying attention.
Looking at the forecast figures, non-farm employment is expected to increase by about 50k to 55,000 jobs from 22,000 last month, which is lower than what the market was anticipating. The unemployment rate is also expected to remain unchanged at 4.3%. It seems like there are signs that the employment market is gradually cooling down.
The wage data is also interesting; the average hourly wage is projected to rise by about 0.3% this month, maintaining an annual rate of around 4.7%. Overall, the non-farm employment indicators are showing signs of weakness. Since the government shutdown has also delayed the October data, it will become more difficult to interpret future labor market trends.