Market rumors that "urea exceeding expected export quotas are being issued" are false. It is currently difficult to loosen export restrictions.

On the 21st, urea futures market saw a significant surge in trading volume. By the close, the main contract 2609 was quoted at 1,996 yuan per ton, up 3.63%, with daily open interest increasing by over 110k lots. The highest price during the session reached 2,029 yuan per ton, hitting a 24-year high since August. It is reported that there were rumors circulating that the export quota for urea was unexpectedly released. Against the backdrop of large price differences between domestic and international markets, a strong bullish sentiment quickly swept through all futures contracts, causing urea prices to spike sharply. Additionally, the extremely low inventory levels and tight spot supply further fueled this rally. It has been confirmed that the rumors about the export quota release are false. Currently, urea inventories are at historically low levels, with domestic companies holding tight on spot sales, facing significant supply pressure, making it difficult to loosen export restrictions at this time. While low inventory and industrial demand provide some price support, they are not enough to drive a sharp increase in prices in the short term. Urea prices may remain relatively strong in the future, but traders should be cautious of a significant pullback caused by easing expectations. (GF Futures)