Gate News reports, April 25 — Brazil's National Monetary Council (NMC), through Resolution No. 5,298 issued in late April 2026, officially banned 27 prediction market platforms, including Kalshi and Polymarket. The resolution prohibits derivatives contracts based on non-economic events, such as sports, political elections, and cultural outcomes. The telecommunications regulator Anatel has been instructed to shut down the affected platforms' domains, making them inaccessible to users within Brazil. The Brazilian government described these platforms as gambling schemes disguised as financial instruments and attributed part of the rise in household debt to unregulated online gambling. Finance Minister Dario Durigan emphasized that the ban aims to protect citizens' deposits and curb household debt. Derivatives contracts are now limited to predefined economic benchmarks—including price indices, interest rates, and exchange rates—and must be conducted by companies authorized by the Central Bank of Brazil. Despite Kalshi's recent partnership with Brazilian broker XP International in March 2026, it remains subject to the ban; Polymarket was targeted for offering unlicensed binary event contracts. Industry experts and critics argue that this broad ban will stifle digital financial innovation and may push users toward offshore platforms with lower transparency. Prediction markets are valued because they can aggregate information more accurately than traditional opinion polls. Meanwhile, Brazil's strict stance contrasts sharply with the regulatory approach in the United States. In February 2026, the U.S. CFTC withdrew a previous proposal to ban contracts entirely for elections and sports, instead classifying event contracts as "swaps" under the Commodity Exchange Act. On March 12, 2026, the CFTC issued a new "Proposed Rulemaking Advance Notice" to establish standards rather than bans, allowing prediction platforms like Kalshi to operate under strict anti-market manipulation safeguards.

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