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This time, Brazil is closing the door directly, not patching it. Prediction market platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket are kept out; the only contracts that can be made are those related to inflation, interest rates, exchange rates, and commodity prices. Sports, politics, entertainment—none of these are possible anymore. For the prediction market sector, such restrictions will genuinely increase the entry costs, making it even more difficult to operate in the South American market later on.