4.24 BTC Deep Analysis

Current Market Core Tone

After this wave of continuous rally, BTC has now officially entered the high-level divergence and consolidation phase.

No need to guess a sharp drop blindly, and don’t chase new highs recklessly. The daily chart’s major bullish foundation remains solid, and the long-term trend is intact; just the short-term bulls lack the momentum to push higher.

The market has completely shifted from a one-sided rise to high-level oscillation, chip grinding, and retail investor washing. Recently, it’s been all about sharp rises followed by pullbacks with long upper shadows, profit-taking at high levels is happening, and the main force doesn’t want to aggressively attack 80k. It’s a typical pause and consolidation during an uptrend, not a reversal downward. Just hold the range and trade within it.

Intraday Market Complete K-line Scene Replay

Yesterday, the bulls kept pushing up, reaching a high of 79,444, approaching the psychological level of 80k. Coupled with previous dense trapped positions, the selling pressure above suddenly surged.

In the afternoon, short-term profit-taking concentrated and the market quickly dropped back, falling to around 75,890 before stabilizing. Spot funds at the low levels entered directly to support, bears couldn’t push down further, and the market stabilized on the spot, with no signs of deep breakdowns or bad signals.

The daily chart closed with a standard long upper shadow small bearish candle, a very clear practical signal: heavy selling pressure above, bulls lack the strength for new highs; support below is stable, no need to worry about a deep plunge; bulls and bears are now evenly matched. The previous reckless bullish run is over for now. In the next one or two days, expect high-level oscillation and chip grinding within the range.

All short and long moving averages on the daily are aligned bullishly, with the price firmly above the averages. The overall trend is fine, and the bottom holdings can be confidently held.

However, the short-term price is hugging the short-term moving averages, with the pace of rise clearly slowing down. The short-term averages, which were previously upward sloping, are now flattening and suppressing the market.

In simple terms: hold long-term positions without moving, don’t chase longs in the short term, and expect the market to be weak and oscillate. Holding the short-term averages can still see a small rebound, but if the averages are broken effectively, a pullback and washout will follow. Just be mentally prepared.

The daily MACD remains above the zero line, indicating the main force’s bullish bias hasn’t changed, so no need to be overly bearish. But the red bars are getting shorter, and the two lines are gradually converging, clearly showing that bullish buying is lagging and losing momentum.

The short-cycle MACD has already turned downward and weakened below the waterline, so the short-term bears temporarily have the upper hand.

In summary: the big trend is safely supported, but the short-term is weak and oscillating. Now is only suitable for watching and waiting for opportunities, not for opening high-level trades recklessly.

The RSI was directly overbought during the previous surge, completely exhausting bullish sentiment. Most longs chasing at high levels are trapped, and a hidden bearish divergence appeared, which is the real reason for the pullback after the surge.

Now, the RSI is gradually cooling and falling back, but it’s not yet at a safe bottoming position.

The short-term RSI is near oversold, likely to see a small rebound for correction. Remember: this is just a weak rebound within oscillation, not a new rally. The rebound will still face resistance; don’t get the rhythm wrong.

The daily KDJ is in the overbought zone and is about to form a death cross, indicating a natural correction and retracement is needed.

The short-cycle KDJ has already dropped into oversold territory, and a golden cross could trigger a small rebound at any time. The rhythm is very clear: don’t chase longs at high levels, lightly position at lows for a bounce, and if encountering resistance, continue to fall back. This perfectly matches the main force’s washout routine—timing operations carefully to avoid pitfalls.

Volume is very typical: volume shrinks during the rise, no one is chasing longs; volume increases during the pullback, indicating real funds are exiting.

On the futures side, longs are clustered at high levels, and the main force likely wants to wash out some long positions. Short-term, a spike to stop-loss levels is quite probable.

Spot large traders slightly reduced positions at high levels, but the funds at the lows are stable, not willing to sell aggressively or break down deeply. Overall, it’s high-level turnover and washout, accumulating strength for the next move, with no signs of a one-sided crash.

Intraday Core Support and Resistance Levels

Short-term core support is around 75,000–76,000. 76,000 is today’s short-term lifeline; holding it suggests a high-level sideways strength. Falling below indicates short-term weakness, with a quick move to test 75,000 support. 75,000 is the dual bottom support from moving averages and chips, the bottom line of this rally. As long as it’s not broken, bulls are safe.

Upper resistance targets are 77,500–79,000. 77,500 is the first resistance; if the rebound reaches here with insufficient volume, it will fall back. 79,000, close to 80k, has a lot of trapped positions; without volume, it’s impossible to break through. No guesses about a breakout or chasing highs.

The trend doesn’t need to be complicated: if volume can stabilize above 77,500, with funds returning and indicators repairing, then test 80k again. If support at 76,000 fails, then directly revisit 75,000 to build a bottom. As long as no breakdown occurs within the range, it’s all about shrinking volume and grinding, avoiding early entries or betting on direction. Wait for volume to break the range before following the trend—most stable.

Operational Entry and Exit Strategy

Here’s the practical approach: daily bullish trend remains unchanged, short-term is weak, avoid chasing, avoid holding to the top.

Be patient and wait for a pullback to support at 75,000–76,000, and look for stabilization signals to buy in batches. When rebounding to resistance levels, if volume is insufficient or stagnates, take profits and exit. No greed. Strict risk control: cut losses unconditionally if support is broken, reduce leverage on futures, don’t get washed out by spikes.

Overall Summary + Risk Control Reminder

In conclusion: BTC’s major bullish trend remains solid, but short-term momentum is weak and needs consolidation. Expect high-level oscillation between 75,000 and 79,000.

Operate with light positions, swing trading, buy low and sell high. Don’t hold heavy, don’t gamble everything, don’t bet on a one-sided move. Wait for volume breakout to follow the trend.

Market volatility is huge. The above is purely a technical review and does not constitute investment advice. Always set stop-losses, strictly control positions, and trade rationally. #加密市场行情震荡