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Recently reviewing old bull and bear project announcements, I found that to see if a team is working seriously, I now prefer to focus on "how the treasury funds are spent" and "whether the milestones match up." In other words, it's not about how many roadmaps they write, but whether, after the money is spent, you can see tangible results over time: code updates, audits, ecosystem support, or even whether the budget that should be cut has been cut. When most of the treasury is allocated to "market cooperation/consultant fees," and milestones are always set for next month, it feels a bit familiar...
And also, don’t be too superstitious about the label system of on-chain data tools. Recently, they've been criticized for lagging behind or even misleading. Sometimes, when you see "a certain address is dumping," a quick check might reveal it's multi-signature wallet transfers or market rebalancing. Anyway, I now prefer to be a bit slower and consult multiple sources.
What I regret isn’t the outcome, but that I only focused on candlestick charts back then, without patience to see how the funds were spent or whether promises were fulfilled... Forget it, after losing a few times, I’ve learned my lesson.