Global central banks' gold purchases warm up again; what is the outlook for gold prices?

Central banks around the world net purchased 19 tons of gold in February 2026, still below the reported monthly average of 26 tons in 2025, but a rebound from the net purchase of 5 tons in January 2026.

Text | Researcher Gu Xinyu from “Caijing”

Editor | Zhang Wei

The World Gold Council’s April 2, 2026, monthly report on central bank gold purchases shows that in February 2026, central banks net bought 19 tons of gold, still below the 26-ton monthly average reported in 2025, but a recovery from the 5-ton net purchase in January 2026.

The World Gold Council stated that the situation in February appears to indicate a rebound in central bank gold buying after a calm January, highlighting their recognition and persistence in gold as a reserve asset.

The report shows that the Polish National Bank drove most of the gold purchases in February, buying 20 tons. This brought its total gold reserves to 570 tons, accounting for 31% of its total reserves.

Polish Central Bank Governor Adam Glapiński previously stated in a press release from the Polish National Bank on January 20, “The Polish National Bank has decided to further increase its gold reserves to 700 tons. This will place Poland among the top ten countries globally in gold reserves.”

Notably, Adam Glapiński proposed in March that the country might sell some gold reserves to raise $13 billion for defense spending, with the intention to “generate profit and then buy it back.” The World Gold Council said that details of this proposal remain unclear.

Additionally, the report shows some central banks maintained a record of continuous net gold purchases. The Czech Republic reported its 36th consecutive month of net buying. China increased its gold holdings for the 16th consecutive month, with a total purchase of 44 tons from November 2024 to February 2026, according to the World Gold Council. Uzbekistan also bought gold net for five consecutive months.

The report emphasizes the trend of African central banks using gold as a strategic diversification tool. Uganda’s central bank actively bought gold in March 2026. The bank aims to purchase at least 100 kilograms of gold from artisanal miners, medium, and large domestic producers between March and June 2026. Kenya’s central bank governor also expressed a similar intention in early February.

Shaokai Fan, CEO of the Asia-Pacific region (excluding China) of the World Gold Council and head of global central banks, said at the Mining Week event in Canberra at the end of March that a recent phenomenon is that central banks that have been inactive or absent from gold markets for a long time are now entering the market. “This could be a trend that continues into 2026,” he believes.

Meanwhile, some emerging market central banks are reducing their gold holdings. The report shows Turkey (reducing by 8 tons) and Russia (reducing by 6 tons) had the largest decreases in gold reserves in February. The January central bank gold report from the World Gold Council indicated that Russia was also a net seller of gold in January, reducing holdings by 9 tons.

Yang Chao, chief strategist at China Galaxy Securities, believes that Western sanctions, fluctuations in energy revenues, and increased military spending have led Russia to sell small amounts of gold to fill fiscal gaps.

Turkey continued to reduce its gold holdings in March. Data from the Turkish Central Bank shows that Turkey’s gold reserves have been declining significantly since the week of February 27, decreasing by over $36.7 billion from that week to the week of March 27.

In response, Turkish Central Bank Governor Fahrettin Koca on March 31 said in an interview with other media that Turkey’s annual inflation rate in February slightly increased, and due to the Middle East situation (mainly rising global energy prices), inflation expectations by the end of 2026 also rose. Therefore, the Turkish Central Bank has paused its easing cycle and carried out large-scale foreign exchange and gold reserve sales and swaps to support the Turkish lira exchange rate.

Koca pointed out that a large part of these gold transactions are of a nature similar to gold-currency swap futures. In other words, when they mature, the gold will return to Turkey’s reserves.

From March to April 2026, gold prices experienced a “rise—drop—volatile rebound—another decline” pattern. In early March, spot gold briefly rose above $5,410 per ounce but then fell sharply. According to LBMA gold prices (settled in the afternoon, in USD), from March 11 to March 23, spot gold closed at $4,662.25 per ounce, down about 13.82% from $5,182.4 per ounce, with only a brief rebound on March 17 before continuing to fall. Subsequently, gold rebounded amid volatility, briefly surpassing $4,800 per ounce on April 2, then declined again, closing at $4,675.99 per ounce at 4:59 a.m. on April 3.

Looking ahead, despite recent sharp fluctuations in gold prices, many institutions remain bullish on gold. A Goldman Sachs report at the end of March pointed out that supported by ongoing central bank gold purchases and the Federal Reserve’s expected two more rate cuts this year, the medium-term outlook for gold remains solid, with prices potentially rising to $5,400 per ounce by the end of the year. UBS also forecasted at the end of March that the target price for gold in early 2027 would be $5,900 per ounce.