I looked at the three-month BTC futures — the basis is holding at around 2.5% annually. It's like a treasury bill rate, nothing extraordinary. Over the week, open interest decreased by 6%, which is also indicative.

The most interesting thing is that the speculative premium is almost nonexistent. The derivatives market is completely risk-free, with no risk premium. This doesn't mean we're at the bottom, and it doesn't look like euphoria — just an ordinary, boring, neutral market.

This is usually when most traders get distracted and stop paying attention to the situation. But it's precisely these moments that often turn out to be key.