#加密市场行情震荡 Handshake at the negotiating table, but in the Strait, no one dares to send ships through?

You think that once the US and Iran start talks, oil prices will fall and BTC will cheer right along with US stocks?
Wrong.
The more news headlines you see about handshake and peace, the more you should watch those few lonely ships in the Strait of Hormuz.
Today, the White House floated a message: the special envoy will go to Islamabad to meet the Iranian foreign minister, and the diplomatic phase is officially underway. The probability on Polymarket that talks can be held before the 29th has shot up to 56%.
Sounds like things are supposed to cool down, right?
Now look at another headline: the US Treasury Secretary slammed the table at the same time—Iran’s oil exemptions will not be extended, and sanctions will remain in place.
Military + sanctions + diplomacy—three-pronged.
This isn’t about loosening restrictions; it’s like putting a knife to your neck, then asking if you want to sit down and have a cup of tea.
Then look at oil prices: Brent is crouching near $100—no crash.
Now look at BTC: $77,000 just sways around, down 1%—it’s not panicking and following oil.
Why?
Because the market is in an extremely twisted state right now—
Talking on the surface, but never stopping in action; ships in the strait have fallen from the normal 115 per day to fewer than 9 today.
This isn’t a ceasefire; it’s economic suffocation.
The hotter the negotiations get at the negotiating table, the emptier and colder the Strait becomes. This is not a signal of peace—it’s panic packaged as news.
Many people see the words “negotiation” and their first reaction is: the crisis will be resolved, oil prices will fall, inflation will ease, US stocks will rise, and BTC should also jump in with a risk-on run.
Naive.
Look at history—what truly suppresses oil prices? It’s ships that are actually running, oil that’s actually being transported.
And now? The Strait of Hormuz is almost at a standstill. Japan has even started releasing reserves on its own and taking detours. That’s self-rescue, not a solution.
Hardliners in Iran have outflanked pragmatists, and negotiations look more like buying time. On the US side, they say they’re talking while sanctions get stepped up.
This isn’t about seeking consensus—it’s about seeing who will crack first.
So what about BTC?
BTC’s current position is awkward.
If you say it’s a safe-haven asset—when gold falls, it doesn’t rise. When oil prices surge, it doesn’t follow.
If you say it’s a risk asset—when US stocks rise 1.5%, it actually drops 1%.
It’s stuck in the middle, neither spear nor shield.
The real trading mainline right now isn’t “safe haven vs. risk-taking,” but “energy supply disruption vs. diplomatic illusions.”
What are funds buying? Oil shipping, energy, and defense industry. What are they selling? Airlines, logistics, and high-valuation growth stocks.
BTC isn’t on any side. It’s an emotional orphan right now.
If negotiations break down (45% probability):
Oil prices surge to 105-110; global risk-off. BTC will most likely get treated first as a liquidity siphon and then, only afterward, will someone remember it could be “digital gold.” But that lag is enough to wipe you out.
If negotiations drag on (40% probability):
Oil prices trade sideways at high levels; US stocks diverge; BTC remains confused, washing back and forth.
There’s only one scenario where BTC gets to feel good: oil prices crash + the dollar weakens + liquidity loosens. But which one does it look like right now?
Don’t treat diplomatic news as a trading signal.
Before the Strait of Hormuz resumes 100 ships a day, all “handshakes” are just a rest stop before the second wave of higher oil prices.
And BTC? It hasn’t decided which side it belongs to yet.